What are the critical levels to watch on bitcoin? Let’s study the charts.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
The total market capitalization of bitcoin is close to $200 billion and its market dominance continues to sustain above 62%. This is a positive sign. It shows that market participants expect the rally to continue, hence, they are in no rush to book profits even after a 300% rally from the lows in 2019.
Anthony Pompliano — co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets — believes that bitcoin’s halving, global instability and recognition of the top cryptocurrency as a safe haven will propel its price to $100,000 by the end of 2021.
While it is difficult to predict whether bitcoin will reach the above-mentioned target in the specified time, the current rally from the lows has shown that the leading cryptocurrency can still go parabolic. However, most altcoins are still lagging far behind in the current pullback. We believe for a sustained move, it is unlikely to be a bitcoin-only story. The altcoins with strong use cases will also join the party and the rally will be broad-based. What do the charts of the major cryptocurrencies predict? Let’s find out.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit a wall around $12,000 on July 3 and 4 and turned down from there. The pullback is currently finding support at the 20-day EMA, which is a positive sign. If the cryptocurrency bounces off the 20-day EMA, chances of a breakout above $12,000 increase. The levels to watch on the upside are $12,500 and above it $13,973.50.
Conversely, if the bears sink the BTC/USD pair below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate profit booking. The next support on the downside is at $9,727.55 and below it at 50-day SMA. If the pair slides below the 50-day SMA, we expect a deeper fall to $7,507.20.
Currently, the slope on both the moving averages is gradually flattening out and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This suggests that the trend still remains up, albeit not as strong as before. The next three to four days are important as they will set the stage for the next leg of the move, either up or down.
Ether (ETH) has been trading in a tight range of $270 to $303 for the past four days. Both the moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is close to the midpoint. This points to range-bound action in the near term.
If the ETH/USD pair breaks below the 50-day SMA, it will indicate weakness. The next support is at $225. On the other hand, if the bulls push the price above $303, it can move up to the overhead resistance of $320.840 and above it to $366. We like the way the cryptocurrency has held above the 50-day SMA in this pullback. This shows strength. We will recommend a long position if we spot a buy setup, which has a good risk to reward ratio.
The bears are attempting to sink Ripple (XRP) below the support of $0.37835. If successful, the fall can extend to $0.35660, which is an important support. If this breaks down, a drop to $0.27795 is possible. The moving averages are close to a bearish crossover, which suggests that sellers have the upper hand.
Contrary to our assumption, if bulls defend the support at $0.37835, the XRP/USD pair will again attempt to rise above the moving averages. A breakout can carry the price to $0.450 and above it to $0.5050. We currently do not find any buy setups, hence, we remain neutral on the cryptocurrency.
Litecoin (LTC) is range-bound between $111.8994 and $140.3450. Both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just below 50, which suggests that the consolidation is likely to continue for a few more days. The price is currently sandwiched between both the 50-day SMA and the 20-day EMA for the past four days.
If bears sink the LTC/USD pair below $111.8994, it can drop to the support line of the ascending channel, which is an important support. We expect this support to hold, hence, we might suggest long positions if the price rebounds sharply from it. The stop loss can be kept just below the channel because a break own of the channel will signal a trend change and a likely drop to $66.470.
Bitcoin cash (BCH) has turned down from the 20-day EMA. Both the moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover, which is a negative sign. The next level to watch on the downside is the support line of the channel and below it $360. If this support cracks, the pair can slump to $280.
However, if the bulls defend the support line of the channel and propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the BCH/USD pair can rise to $448 and above it to $515. We will watch the price action for the next couple of days and suggest long positions if the support holds and the cryptocurrency moves above the 20-day EMA.
EOS has been attempting to hold the critical support at $5.550 for the past five days. If this support cracks, a fall to $4.4930 is likely. The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is in negative territory, which suggests bears have the upper hand in the short term.
On the other hand, if the EOS/USD pair bounces off $5.550, it will face resistance at the 20-day EMA. If the bulls scale above this level and re-enter the channel, it will indicate strength. We do not find any buy setup at the current levels, hence, we are not proposing a trade in it.
Binance Coin (BNB) is in a long-term uptrend but is range-bound in the short term. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below 50, which points to a consolidation in the near term.
If bears sink the BNB/USD pair below the 50-day SMA, it can drop to $28.7168. This is an important support, below which the correction can extend to the uptrend line. A breakdown of the uptrend line will signal advantage bears and a change in trend.
However, if bulls hold $28.7168 and push the price above the 20-day EMA, a rally to $39.5941 is probable. A breakout to new highs will confirm the resumption of the uptrend. As long as the price stays above the uptrend line, we remain positive on the cryptocurrency and will suggest long positions if a new buy set up forms.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) is consolidating between $172.910 and $255.620. For the past two days, the bulls have been trying to scale above the 20-day EMA. If successful, a move to $226 and above it to $255.620 is possible.
However, if the BSV/USD pair fails to rise above the 20-day EMA, it can drop to the 50-day SMA and below it to the support of the range at $172.910. A breakdown of the range will be a negative sign and can sink the pair to $134.360. As the rally from the lows was vertical, the fall — if it happens — will be equally sharp.
Tron (TRX) has been trading between $0.030 and the 20-day EMA for the past four days. This shows balance between both buyers and sellers. A breakdown of $0.030 will tilt the balance in favor of bears and a drop to the trendline of the ascending channel is likely.
We expect strong buying at the trendline. If the price rebounds sharply from it, we might suggest long positions. But if the cryptocurrency breaks down of the channel, the trend will turn in favor of bears and it can drop to $0.021.
If the TRX/USD pair climbs above 20-day EMA, it can recover to $0.0356985, above which a rally to $0.040 is probable. This level has acted as a strong barrier on the previous two occasions. If the bulls push the pair above it, a new uptrend is likely.
Cardano (ADA) is range-bound and has been languishing near the bottom of the range, which is a negative sign. The failure to bounce off the support shows a lack of demand at the current levels. The bears will now try to sink the digital currency below the $0.077–$0.073 support zone.
A breakdown of $0.073 can result in a drop to the next support at $0.060. The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the RSI is in the negative zone, which shows that bears are in command.
However, if the ADA/USD rebounds from the support zone, the bulls will attempt to push it above the moving averages. We will suggest long positions if we find a strong bounce from the current levels because a breakout of the moving averages can carry the price to $0.10.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.